By Mehman Aliyev

The recent presidential election in Moldova placed the country at a political crossroads, as incumbent President Maia Sandu secured a victory by a narrow margin in a tense second-round contest against Alexandr Stoianoglo. The election, which concluded on November 3, saw broad participation, especially from Moldovans living abroad, and revealed deep divisions within the country about its future path: whether Moldova should remain linked to Russian influence or continue its course toward European integration.

Leading up to the election, Moldova was engulfed in political uncertainty and economic challenges. Years of political instability and corruption had eroded public trust in state institutions. In recent months, Moldovan citizens faced rising inflation, stagnant wages, and growing debt, fueling a sense of disillusionment with the political elite. The country’s growing economic reliance on remittances from roughly one million Moldovans living abroad further underscored its financial vulnerability.

During her previous term, Maia Sandu’s administration made progress toward European Union (EU) integration. However, her push for judicial reform, anti-corruption measures, and greater transparency met with fierce resistance from entrenched political and economic interests. Many Moldovans remain skeptical about whether the European path will bring economic stability or simply exacerbate existing tensions.

Despite Sandu’s victory, a referendum to enshrine EU membership in Moldova’s constitution did not receive sufficient support. Analysts attribute this outcome to widespread fears that European integration could worsen existing economic disparities and threaten Moldova’s longstanding ties with Russia, which remains a key trading partner. “People are torn,” said political analyst Ion Ciobanu. “The EU represents a promising future, but it also signifies change, which frightens many who fear losing jobs or pensions if the country veers too far from Russia.”

While most urban voters and young citizens favor European integration, rural areas, which form a significant part of Moldova’s electorate, are more cautious about drastic shifts in foreign policy. “For many, the EU is a distant dream,” explained sociologist Elena Lupescu. “For the average Moldovan, day-to-day issues like finding work and paying bills are what really matter.”

Sandu’s platform of European integration and institutional reforms resonated strongly, particularly among Moldovans living abroad. With 330,000 Moldovans voting at international polling stations, Sandu’s pro-European stance garnered overwhelming support, securing nearly 82% of the diaspora vote. This foreign backing proved decisive in her victory, offsetting her narrow loss within Moldova, where she received 48.81% of the vote compared to Stoianoglo’s 51.19%.

Sandu’s message appealed to the values of Moldovans who have experienced European life firsthand. Many expatriates see EU integration as a path to better governance, economic stability, and security. “Living in Europe gives you a vision of what Moldova could be,” said Ana Toma, a Moldovan living in Italy. “We want our families back home to have the same opportunities.”

With approximately one million Moldovans living abroad, the diaspora has become an influential force in the country’s elections. Sandu’s strong support among Moldovans in Europe reflects a growing consensus among expatriates about the benefits of EU integration. “The diaspora vote is a statement,” noted political commentator Daniela Motruc. “They are signaling to the country that the European model is viable and desirable for Moldova.”

Nevertheless, Moldova’s future depends on reconciling these international aspirations with the concerns of those at home, many of whom remain wary of the EU’s impact on Moldova’s economy and sovereignty. “The task before Sandu is monumental,” said analyst Ciobanu. “She must find a way to make the European path relevant to ordinary Moldovans.”

Moldova’s Path Forward: What Lies Ahead

Two-round election structure underscored the deep divisions within Moldova’s electorate. Sandu’s nearly 10% lead in the second round reflects a split nation, but one cautiously optimistic about the possibility of change.

With a second mandate, Sandu faces the complex task of addressing both domestic economic challenges and foreign policy. Her administration’s immediate focus is likely to be on judicial reform and combating corruption, but European integration will be a slower and more complicated process. Securing Moldova’s EU membership will require both structural reforms and political stability—a challenging prospect given the internal divisions exposed by this election.

The European path could align Moldova with Western standards in rule of law and economic policy. However, Sandu’s opponents argue that focusing on EU membership could alienate Russia, which supplies Moldova with energy and maintains substantial influence over the separatist region of Transnistria. Political scientist Viktor Medvedev noted, “Balancing these influences without creating further instability is the true challenge of Sandu’s presidency.”

Despite these challenges, Sandu’s re-election offers a glimmer of hope for Moldova’s European ambitions. Her administration’s success in bridging the divide between urban and rural voters and addressing the concerns of those wary of Western influence will determine Moldova’s path forward. As Sandu said after her victory, “Moldova’s strength lies in each of you… Our path will not be easy, but together, we can shape a future of peace, prosperity, and unity.”