By Dr. Carsten Sander Christensen
In May 2008, Poland and Sweden put forward a joint proposal for an Eastern Partnership (ENP) with Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. All post-Soviet states. In the beginning, Belarus and Kazakhstan were more or less participating in the ENP in some aspects, too. It was all part of an ambitious Western European idea of a big market – a little like in the good old Roman Empire realm – a so-called European Neighborhood Policy. In the Mediterranean Partnership (MP) area Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Lebanon and Syria were partnership countries. The purpose of as well neighborhood plan as the idea of a partnership was to strengthen individual and regional relationship between EU and its neighborhood countries – a seemingly good idea.
Unlike the United States, which is a federal state, Europe consists of a number of independent states. Therefore, there were initially different perceptions of the initiative – especially the partnership in Eastern Europe. Bulgaria and Romania were afraid of the consequences of an economic undermining of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation, whereas France and Germany and especially countries in southern Europe were not happy with the possibility that the ENP could be seen as a stepping to a EU-Membership for the partnership countries. Especially a membership of Ukraine was not at all a part of a European future scenario.
After the lunching of the ENP in May 2009 in Prague, it was reported from Moscow that the Russians accused EU to built up new spheres of influence that would undermine Russia’s influence in the neighbor areas. And Russia was by far underestimated as a political competitor in Eastern Europe.
Especially the partnership of Ukraine was discussed in Moscow and Bruxelles. The EU gave the relationship with Russia the highest priority and thus left Ukraine in the lurch. It was not the only EU failure. Not only Ukraine but also the other partnership countries were being faced with a wide range of demands for democracy, adaptation to the European economic model and integration of European values. Such a process could take a lot of years and required a lot of administrative work in local parliaments, for instance in Azerbaijan – time that could otherwise have been spent on general development of the country. Other possible partners for the ENP states like USA, India, China and of course Russia did not have the same amount of protocols to comply with. The ENP was weakened from the beginning due to the lack of interest in the project, for example, from the sides of Moldova, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
In 2010, Viktor Yanukovych was elected President of Ukraine. Generally considered to be a political Russian puppet but seen in the light of the European hesitation with integration of Ukraine into the EU and militarily into NATO, Yanukovych was in an almost impossible situation where the Russians were pressing from the east while the Europeans were closing the borders in the west. In 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula and parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in eastern Ukraine. The result Yanukovych was exiled in Russia in 2014.
European and American reactions to the new Russian tactical moves were vague and once again the relationship with the Russians was prioritized over Ukraine. Exactly as the missing reactions of EU were after the war in Georgia in 2008. And very convenient for the EU, then Ukrainian membership was also pushed to the sidelines. And this despite the fact that Ukraine already applied for membership of the EU in May 2015 in Riga. No serious reactions from Bruxelles. In the following eight years, the EU maintained the status quo in the Russian-Ukrainian Black Sea region. And in reality no further economic or political development between the European and the Ukrainians.
On February 24, 2022, Russia totally changed their strategy towards. A full-scale war in the area. In May 2019, after a very heated election campaign, Volodymyr Zelinskyy was elected President of Ukraine. In the following months after the inauguration, he was very eager to make plans for a reintegration of the Russian occupied territories of his country. Another important issue of Zelinskyy was a Ukrainian Membership of NATO and in talks with Joe Biden (D) in Washington in April 2021, Zelinskyy asked about a membership – but no reactions from USA. He was not supported by neither the USA nor by the EU. One more time the Europeans in EU didn’t do their homework very well.
On November 26, 2021, Volodymyr Zelinskyy accused Russia of backing a plan to overthrow his government. Moscow of course denied any involvement. And still no reactions from EU or NATO. And not even though military intelligence reported increased military activity on the Russian side of the common border with Ukraine. The war has now lasted in three years. After beginning of the war in February 2022, Ukraine again applied for a membership of EU shortly after the outbreak of the war. But in March 2025, no promises or negotiations, even on a introductory stage, have taken place in Bruxelles.
All in all, almost 20 years of as well American lack of interest in a war between two European nations and European misjudgments, hesitation (lack of interest?) and bureaucracy insanity have weakened as well the European Neighborhood Policy/Eastern Partnership as the unity in NATO in a disastrous manner. But all this could have been avoided if the EU had implemented and integrated the post-Soviet States in an association agreement around 2010. Not as future member countries but as trade partners. Membership would have followed automatically. Furthermore, the Mediterranean Partnership disappeared in an islamophobia not seen since the time of the Crusades in 1200s.
Instead in 2025, Western Europe finds itself in a very precarious situation. The US will of course not sponsor a local and regional European war. The US has simply better things to spend their money on. And cannot allow Russia to be annexed by China. The EU should be able to handle their problems itself, but just like in the Balkan wars in the 1990s, the EU failed completely.
Europe’s leaders are now left home alone – and lacking weapons, ammunition and combat-ready soldiers. One must hope that the European countries will emerge from the isolation they currently find themselves in globally and find the continent’s rightful place at the table of the great powers again.
