By Dr. Carsten Sander Christensen

As the world grapples with overlapping conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and the broader Middle East involving Iran, China has emerged as a critical observer and quiet actor in the last years. And so far, no one has been able to detect Chinese soldiers or Chinese weapons inside Ukraine. While avoiding direct military involvement, Beijing’s strategic interests and diplomatic positioning in these conflicts reveal a calculated effort to reshape the global order in ways that serve its long-term ambitions. But what are the Chinese perspectives on the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran?

Ukraine: A Balancing Act Between Principles and Pragmatism

China maintains a publicly neutral stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine. It calls for respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries — a nod to Ukraine — while also opposing NATO expansion and Western sanctions against Russia. China is, however, not an innocent bystander, but sometimes expresses his opinion on the Western world’s actions in the conflict and mostly in favor of Russia.

Chinese Strategic Interests

• Sino-Russian Partnership: China views Russia as a strategic counterweight to the West. The “no-limits” partnership announced in February 2022 signaled deepening ties. Despite claims of neutrality, China has provided diplomatic and economic lifelines to Russia, including increased energy imports and trade.
• Opposition to U.S. Hegemony: Beijing sees the war as a challenge to the U.S.-led global order. The prolonged conflict weakens Western unity and drains U.S. resources, which indirectly benefits China’s global ambitions.
• Taiwan Implications: The West’s response to Ukraine is closely studied in Beijing for implications on Taiwan. China is assessing Western thresholds for military aid, economic sanctions, and diplomatic isolation in case of a Taiwan contingency.

Chinese Risks

• European Relations: China’s perceived support for Russia has strained ties with the EU, complicating economic diplomacy and its ambition to prevent a U.S.-EU tech decoupling.
• Global South Image: While courting the Global South, China must walk a fine line between anti-imperial solidarity and supporting an invasion, which many developing nations also criticize.

Gaza: Positioning as Global Peacemaker

China has condemned violence against civilians, called for a ceasefire, and repeatedly voiced support for the two-state solution. However, the atrocities in Gaza are probably reaching a point where all parties must distance themselves a bit. China has positioned itself as a mediator in contrast to the U.S., which is widely seen in the region as pro-Israel. The treatment of Muslim minorities in the homeland, especially the eleven millions Uyghurs, also does not reflect a brotherly Chinese relationship with Muslims.

Chinese Strategic Interests

• Soft Power and Global South Leadership: By siding with Palestinian grievances, China strengthens its image in the Arab and Islamic worlds as a voice for the oppressed and a champion of anti-colonial narratives.
• Countering U.S. Influence: China uses the crisis to highlight U.S. double standards on human rights and international law. It presents itself as a more neutral and stabilizing actor in the region.
• Belt and Road Stability: Regional instability threatens China’s investments in the Middle East under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), especially in logistics and energy. A stable Middle East is essential for uninterrupted energy imports and trade routes.

Chinese Risks

• Limited Leverage: China lacks the deep military and political influence in the region that the U.S. enjoys, reducing its ability to shape outcomes directly.
• Extremism Spillover: Unrest in the Middle East could embolden Islamist movements that Beijing fears could influence restive regions like Xinjiang.

Iran: A Strategic Hedge and Energy Partner

China calls for restraint in the region and supports diplomatic solutions, notably backing the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and opposing unilateral U.S. sanctions. At the same time, Iran, together with Russia and North Korea (and partly India), is a counterweight to the current Western dominance led by the United States.

Chinese Strategic Interests

• Energy Security: Iran is a crucial energy supplier. China has become the largest buyer of Iranian oil, often circumventing U.S. sanctions, ensuring stable and cheap energy imports.
• Challenging U.S. Sanctions: By maintaining ties with sanctioned regimes like Iran and Russia, China undermines the power of U.S.-led sanctions and promotes the use of alternative currencies in trade.
• Regional Influence: China seeks to build a multipolar Middle East less dependent on U.S. security guarantees. Its recent role in brokering a diplomatic thaw between Iran and Saudi Arabia was a bold step in this direction.

Chinese Risks

• Overextension: While Beijing wants to shape the Middle East, it remains wary of getting entangled in its deep-rooted conflicts.
• Instability: A U.S.-Iran war, Israeli strikes on Iran, or regime collapse could destabilize the region and jeopardize Chinese investments and energy flows.
• That the military reality, as demonstrated by the attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities on the night of June 22nd, will overtake China within.

A concluding statement about China’s position in the three wars could be – strategic patience in a fractured world. China’s approach to the conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran reflects a careful calibration of principle and pragmatism. It avoids direct confrontation while leveraging chaos to advance its multipolar vision. Beijing’s strategy is defined by:

• Asymmetrical Competition: Exploiting Western overreach while avoiding direct entanglement.
• Diplomatic Positioning: Promoting itself as a neutral mediator and anti-hegemonic force.
• Economic Opportunism: Deepening ties with pariah states to secure energy and influence.

Yet, China’s cautious maneuvering is not without limits. Its global ambitions hinge on stability and continued economic growth—both threatened by regional and global conflicts. As these wars evolve, Beijing must continue walking a geopolitical tightrope, balancing its interests with the risks of overreach, isolation, and reputational damage.