By Yuriy Mykhailenko, Institute of Global Politics
The situation in the Caucasus indicates the possible outbreak of armed conflict between Russia and the countries of the region, which will most likely be supported by the North Atlantic Alliance. Currently, all sides are preparing for this by increasing their troop numbers in the region and organizing military exercises to counter each other. In other words, Russia may actually face a second front, i.e., another war. But it will inevitably suffer defeat due to insufficient resources and manpower for such an undertaking. In any case, events in the Caucasus are currently distracting its attention from Ukraine.
The situation surrounding Putin’s Russia is deteriorating and beginning to resemble Nazi Germany on the eve of its demise. Like Germany at that time, today’s Russia is characterized by an aggressive foreign policy, as a result of which it has entered into a fierce confrontation with most of the world’s leading powers. Like Germany in the past, Russia has also started fighting with its neighbors. Like Germany once did, Russia has overestimated its strength, which has caused all its troubles.
As we know, Germany lost World War II and was effectively destroyed and divided among the victors. Russia, the initiator of World War III, is now approaching the same fate. The opening of a second front could accelerate this process. Like its spiritual and ideological predecessor, Nazi Germany, Russia will not be able to withstand this.
The topic of a second front for Russia has already been raised on our website in the context of its quarrel with Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as Turkey’s interests in the Caucasus. However, mainly only the political aspects of this issue were considered, without a thorough analysis of its military component. The same applies to most other expert assessments.
Such an approach does not allow us to give a complete picture of what is really happening and to make adequate conclusions and predictions. Moreover, all sides of the conflict in the Caucasus have, in fact, already begun preparations for a possible military confrontation. So far, this confrontation is not considered inevitable, but it may become so.
As usual, Russia is backing up its encroachments on other countries with threats, blackmail, and demonstrations of military force. According to a number of reports, as part of these actions, it has begun to build up its troops in the Caucasus. Near the borders with Azerbaijan and Georgia, forces and equipment of the 49th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District, the 2nd Air Force and Air Defense Army of the Aerospace Forces, Airborne Forces, Caspian Flotilla, as well as units and formations from other regions of the country are arriving for reinforcement. According to reports from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, additional military units have also been transferred to the 102nd military base of the Russian Armed Forces in Armenia. Obviously, the same applies to the 7th military base in Abkhazia and the 4th military base in South Ossetia. As is well known, all of them are located in Russian-occupied territories of Georgia.
Since the second half of July this year, unscheduled exercises have been conducted at these military bases, with units leaving their permanent locations. Offensive and defensive actions in mountainous terrain are being mastered, and combat training exercises are being conducted with standard weapons, including barrel and rocket artillery.
In this context, Russia’s large-scale military exercises “July Storm” in the Pacific and Arctic Oceans, as well as in the Baltic and Caspian Seas, can also be considered in a certain way. More than 150 ships, 120 aircrafts, 10 coastal missile systems, and about 17,000 military personnel are involved. The exercises test the fleet’s readiness for non-standard operations and the use of long-range strike weapons, including missiles and UAVs.
At first glance, the Russian Navy’s exercises do not appear to be directly related to the situation in the Caucasus. However, Russia always organizes large-scale military exercises before starting wars against neighboring countries and its own subjects, with the aim of preparing its troops and demonstrating its strength in order to deter other states from interfering in its actions. Examples include Moscow’s conduct of the “Zapad-1999” Strategic Command and Staff Exercise on the eve of the Second Chechen War; “Kavkaz-2008” before the attack on Georgia; “Zapad-2013” and “Zapad-2021” on the eve of the first attack on Ukraine and before the start of a full-scale war against our state. As for the Zapad 2025 military exercises, they are scheduled for this autumn in Belarus. Russia cannot organize another exercise like “Kavkaz” because most of its ground forces and aviation are involved in the war against Ukraine. Therefore, exercises are being conducted with the participation of Navy forces and assets that are not involved in the war (except for the remnants of the Black Sea Fleet) but have significant strike potential.
However, Russia will lack the necessary forces to attack the Caucasus countries, which are supported by Turkey, for the reason mentioned above. Therefore, Moscow will need an ally, which can only be Iran. Despite some problems in their relations due to Russia’s refusal to support Iran during the attack on it by Israel and the USA in June this year, they remain strategic partners. The intentions of the leaderships of both countries to deepen their relations have been confirmed at the official level and are being implemented in practice. In this regard, the joint military exercise of Russia and Iran, “CASAREX 2025”, held in the Caspian Sea from July 21 to 23 this year with the participation of the naval forces of both countries and units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran, was indicative in nature. This demonstrated the readiness of Moscow and Tehran to jointly defend their interests in the region, including by military means. It is quite likely that Iran may support Russia in the war against Azerbaijan, as it considers it its “lost territory” since the days of Persia…
Countries in the region that will be supported by NATO and the USA are also preparing for a possible war in the Caucasus. The measures are not of a pronounced nature, mainly just joint military exercises. The series of such measures began with the joint exercises of the Turkish and Azerbaijani armed forces, “Mustafa Kemal Ataturk 2025” and “Indestructible Partnership 2025”, in June this year. The former was an infantry exercise with live fire; the latter provided computer support for it. Units of the 1st Mechanized Brigade of the 4th Army Corps (Ankara) of the Turkish Army and the 5th Army Corps of the Azerbaijani Army (Nakhchivan) were involved, as well as the air force and air defense forces of both countries. The main events took place in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan, which borders Turkey.
Next came the NATO international military exercise “Agile Spirit 2025”, which is being held from July 25 to August 6 this year on Turkish and Georgian territory. Türkiye, Georgia, the United States, Poland, Germany, Italy, Greece, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Lithuania, and Ukraine are participating in the exercise. Representatives from Armenia and Japan are present as observers. The following units are involved: 9th Army Corps (Erzurum) of the 3rd Field Army (Erzincan) of Türkiye’s Armed Forces; the 2nd Infantry Brigade (Senaki) of Georgia’s Armed Forces; the 48th Separate Brigade of the US National Guard (Georgia).
The Georgian part of the exercises is being led by a joint operational group consisting of representatives of the Western Command of the Georgian Armed Forces and the US National Guard of Georgia (state of the USA), while the Turkish part is being led by the Turkish Armed Forces Command.
The aforementioned cluster of operational and combat training (OCT) events also includes the US-Armenian “Eagle Partner” exercise. The latest such exercise was held in July 2024 in Armenia against the background of the latter’s beginning to distance itself from Russia.
In other words, military exercises involving the armed forces of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and their NATO partners cover virtually the entire Caucasus. According to official information, all of them are peacekeeping in nature and include the rehearsal of specific standard issues. The main ones are: isolation of the area of armed conflict in order to prevent its expansion, as well as the influx of militants and weapons; blocking enemy armed formations and destroying them in case of resistance; conducting convoys with troops, humanitarian aid, and refugees along difficult mountain roads.
At the same time, a set of training and combat tasks is performed that correspond to the above components of the operation. These include: airborne assaults; live-fire exercises with standard weapons involving motorized rifle and artillery units; support for ground forces by army aviation; organization of anti-sabotage defense of troop locations and convoys on the march, as well as countering reconnaissance and sabotage groups.
At the same time, considering today’s realities, a reasonable question arises: what kind of peacekeeping operation can be carried out in the Caucasus now? As a rule, such operations are aimed at forcing the parties to an armed conflict to cease hostilities and create conditions for a peaceful settlement of disputes between them. Currently, there are no objective grounds for armed conflicts in the Caucasus. The problems surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh have been resolved. Azerbaijan and Armenia are ready to conclude a peace agreement. And Georgia, knowing that the issue of restoring its territorial integrity is on the agenda, has given up military actions against Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The only reason for the outbreak of military confrontation in the region could be Russia’s actions to provoke a conflict in one of the Caucasian countries in order to create grounds for attacking it under the guise of protecting the civilian population. It was under this pretext that Russia attacked Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.
Therefore, in reality, the aforementioned exercises are intended to demonstrate the readiness of the Caucasian countries and their Western partners to repulse Russia’s possible aggression and thus deter it from such reckless actions.
In view of the above, the above-mentioned measures can be considered part of a series of exercises that are united by a single operational background within the framework of NATO’s Joint Staff and the US Armed Forces’ “Defender Europe-25”. As is known, the joint exercises involve working through a scenario of repulsing Russia’s full-scale aggression, and the main part of them took place in June this year. In this regard, the exercise “Mustafa Kemal Ataturk 2025” and “Indestructible Partnership 2025”, as well as “Agile Spirit 2025”, are a de facto continuation of Türkiye’s Armed Forces’ “Kış-2025” (Winter-2025) exercise, which was held in January-February this year in the mountainous region in the East of the country. However, unlike the joint exercises between Türkiye and other NATO members with the Caucasian countries, it clearly simulated a war between the two countries.
Against this background, Georgia deserves special attention. It has officially suspended its plans for European and Euro-Atlantic integration. Despite this decision, it participated in the “Agile Spirit 2025” exercise after refusing to do so in 2023. Besides, Georgia continues to cooperate with the North Atlantic Alliance and Türkiye. Thus, the NATO-Georgia Joint Training and Evaluation Center continues to operate in the country. Furthermore, in 2023, at the height of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Georgia and Türkiye adopted a joint Memorandum on the development of cooperation on national and international security issues. And in 2024, Türkiye, Georgia, and Azerbaijan signed a trilateral Memorandum of Cooperation for Peace and Stability in the Caucasus.
Thus, the second, namely the Caucasian front for Russia, is becoming increasingly real. Currently, all the conditions for this are in place, and Russia, Türkiye, its partners in the Caucasus, and its NATO allies have begun practical steps to open it.
If Russia decides to start a new war, it will inevitably suffer defeat because it will not be able to fight on two fronts. And then it will completely abandon both Ukraine and the Caucasus, and then war will break out on Russian territory in the form of civil conflict. It will inevitably flare up after its defeat in the war.
At present, it cannot be said that the start of hostilities is irreversible. The parties may refrain from doing so. At the same time, they are already forcing Moscow to divert its forces from the war against Ukraine. In doing so, Russia’s opponents in the Caucasus are helping our country. Anyway, what is happening in the Caucasus is a manifestation of Moscow’s losing its allies and partners in the post-soviet space, and also confirms the steady trend of escalation on Russia’s borders. This is another defeat for Russia, now on the diplomatic front.
