By Dr. Vugar Bayramov, Member of the Parliament of Azerbaijan
The war in Iran may not go unnoticed for the regional states not only militarily, but also economically. So, what effects could the war have on the Azerbaijani economy?
The trade turnover between Azerbaijan and Iran in 2025 changed slightly compared to the previous year, amounting to $644 million. In 2024, this figure was $647 million. Although the figures show that trade relations between the countries are not expressed in small figures, the structure of the turnover creates a different impression. Thus, a significant part of the trade turnover is imports from Iran. In 2025, $624 million of the $644 million turnover was formed due to imports from Iran. That is, only 3 percent of the total trade turnover is Azerbaijan’s exports to Iran. Azerbaijan’s exports to Iran were only $20 million. This means that last year we had a negative balance of $604 million in trade with Iran.
So, we have a negative balance in our trade relations with Iran over the years. That is, Iran gains more from trade relations with Azerbaijan. This means that if technical difficulties in trade relations with Iran continue, this will not have any special impact on Azerbaijani exports. Statistical analyses over the years show that Iranian imports have dominated trade between the two countries. Iran’s share in Azerbaijan’s total exports is not even expressed in full figures. Exports bring foreign exchange into the country, and imports bring foreign exchange out of the country. As for the impacts, this may manifest itself in a decrease in imports from Iran. Azerbaijan imports construction materials, agricultural products, as well as dried fruits, light industrial products, especially industrial products used in everyday life, from Iran.
From this aspect, let’s be more specific: How can the recent events in Iran affect the Azerbaijani consumer market?
If Iran’s export opportunities are limited for a longer period of time, then difficulties may arise in importing a number of products produced in our southern neighbor. Thus, in 2025, Azerbaijan imported oranges, fresh or dried ($14.3 million), potatoes ($13.6 million), edible salt, iodized products ($11.8 million), eggplant ($9.4 million), cookies ($8.8 million), butter ($8.7 million), pepper, including capsicum or pimenta varieties ($8.3 million), dates, fresh or dried ($6.4 million), onions ($6.1 million), carrots ($5.7 million), cabbage ($4.5 million), cheese ($4.1 million), kiwi ($3.1 million) and other food products from Iran.
At the same time, the main weight in imports fell on construction and industrial products. During the mentioned period, nitrogen ($84.8 million), argon ($48.7 million), marble granules, chips and dust ($20.1 million), monument and construction stone granules, chips and dust ($18.9 million), natural barium sulfate ($12.5 million), white Portland cement ($9.7 million), hypochlorites, chlorites and hypobromites ($6.9 million), disodium carbonate ($5.8 million) and other non-food products were imported from Iran.
As can be seen, industrial and construction products are imported from Iran in larger amounts than food products. Naturally, the prices of imported products are comparatively low. In this regard, there is a need to diversify imports, especially food products, in a shorter period of time.
Along with all this, if imports from Iran decrease, it will not have a special impact on the balance in the consumer market of Azerbaijan. Only 1.3 percent of Azerbaijan’s foreign trade turnover falls on Iran. In 2025, 2.6 percent of our annual imports were formed at the expense of Iran.
Along with all this, in order to prevent the price of goods imported from Iran, especially food, from rising, there is a need to replace these products from alternative markets by bringing them in more quickly. Of course, this will also depend on the duration of the war. However, in light of the events taking place in the region, the diversification of food import markets and minimizing dependence on imports are becoming even more of a priority.
