Annual inflation in Russia accelerated to 6.35% in September as consumer prices rose faster than economists had expected, according to the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).

Consumer prices increased by 0.35% month on month, reversing the 0.08% decline recorded in August. The September increase exceeded the 0.27% forecast by analysts surveyed by Interfax.

During the first nine months of 2026, consumer prices rose by 5.04%, compared with 4.29% in the same period of 2025. Annual inflation increased from 6.33% at the end of August to 6.35% in September, exceeding analysts’ forecast of 6.26%.

Inflation Reverses Its Earlier Decline

Annual inflation followed a fluctuating trajectory throughout the first nine months of 2026. It fell from 6.00% in January to 5.31% in May before rising to 6.02% in June. After easing slightly to 5.98% in July, it accelerated to 6.33% in August and 6.35% in September.

Monthly inflation also varied considerably. Consumer prices rose by 1.62% in January, 0.73% in February and 0.60% in March. Growth slowed to 0.14% in April and 0.17% in May before accelerating to 0.87% in June and 0.54% in July. August recorded a 0.08% decline, followed by a 0.35% increase in September.

Although September’s monthly inflation was lower than in several earlier months, the cumulative increase in prices remained above the level recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.

Services and Non-Food Goods Record Stronger Price Growth

Rosstat’s data show differing trends across major consumer categories.

Food prices remained unchanged in September compared with August but were 5.05% higher year on year. Fruit and vegetable prices declined by 4.24% during the month, although they remained 4.00% more expensive than a year earlier.

Non-food goods prices rose by 0.55% month on month and 6.47% year on year. Services recorded the strongest annual increase, with prices rising by 0.58% in September and 7.97% compared with September 2025.

The figures indicate that inflationary pressures remain uneven across the consumer basket. While food prices stabilised monthly, non-food goods and services continued to register substantial annual increases.

Utility Tariff Increases Push October Inflation Higher

Inflationary pressure intensified at the beginning of October. According to preliminary Rosstat data, consumer prices increased by 0.90% between 29 September and 5 October, largely reflecting the indexation of housing and utility tariffs effective from 1 October.

The government-approved adjustment was expected to increase utility tariffs by an average of approximately 9.9% nationwide. The Ministry of Economic Development estimated that the tariff adjustment contributed around 0.75 percentage points to the 0.96% increase in consumer prices recorded during the reporting week.

Excluding housing and utility services, consumer prices rose by approximately 0.21% over the same period.

Based on weekly data, annual inflation was estimated at around 7.13% as of 5 October using the Central Bank of Russia’s methodology. This preliminary estimate exceeded the central bank’s 6–7% inflation forecast for 2026.

Monetary Policy Faces Renewed Challenges

On 11 September, the Central Bank of Russia kept its key interest rate unchanged at 14%, pausing a series of ten consecutive rate cuts that had begun after the rate reached 21% in June 2025.

The central bank maintained its forecast that inflation would reach 6–7% in 2026, while indicating that future monetary policy decisions would depend on price developments, inflation expectations and broader economic conditions.

Economists surveyed by Interfax in early October raised their average forecast for annual inflation to 7.0%, up from 6.8% in the previous survey. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Economic Development revised its full-year forecast to 6.8%, compared with the 5.2% projected in May.

These revisions reflect growing caution over the prospects for a sustained slowdown in price growth.

Inflation Outlook for the Final Quarter

Russia’s September inflation report presents a mixed picture. Monthly price growth remained moderate compared with several earlier months, and food prices were stable. Nevertheless, annual inflation accelerated, while non-food goods and services continued to become more expensive.

The increase in utility tariffs in October added further pressure, complicating efforts to bring inflation within the central bank’s target range.

As Russia enters the final quarter of 2026, consumer price developments will remain important for monetary policy, household purchasing power and the broader economic outlook. The balance between underlying inflationary pressures and regulated price adjustments will help determine whether inflation moderates or remains elevated towards the end of the year.

Sources: Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), Interfax and the Ministry of Economic Development.