By Rovshan Pashazadeh
Donald Trump’s return to the White House was widely seen as the beginning of a new chapter in international relations. During his election campaign, he pledged to end wars, protect America’s economic interests and restore the country’s standing on the world stage. However, as November 2026 unfolds, developments across several regions are raising questions about his administration’s ability to fulfil these promises.
The midterm elections held on 3 November dealt a significant setback to the Republican Party, with Democrats gaining control of both chambers of Congress. Public concerns over inflation, the cost of living, economic policies and the military confrontation with Iran contributed to this outcome. The shift in political power is expected to make it more difficult for Trump to advance his domestic and foreign policy agenda.
The Iran Conflict and Its Uncertain Future
The confrontation with Iran has become one of the most serious challenges to Trump’s foreign policy. Military operations launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on 28 February 2026 fundamentally changed the regional security landscape and increased the risk of a wider Middle Eastern conflict.
The ceasefire reached in April and the agreement concluded in June initially raised hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough. However, these expectations proved short-lived. The agreement collapsed in August, and military strikes resumed. By early November, the conflict remains unresolved, with no clear prospect of a lasting settlement.
The consequences extend far beyond the region. Rising security risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf have increased uncertainty in global energy markets, placing additional pressure on the international economy. For Europe and Asia, the crisis has once again demonstrated the vulnerability of energy supply routes and the importance of diversifying energy sources.
The continuation of military operations under a president who promised to end wars highlights the contradiction between Trump’s campaign rhetoric and the realities of his foreign policy. The longer the confrontation continues, the greater its political, economic and diplomatic costs for Washington.
The Russia–Ukraine War: Peace Remains Elusive
The war between Russia and Ukraine remains another major test of Trump’s diplomatic ambitions. Despite repeated assurances that he could bring the conflict to an end, fundamental disagreements between Moscow and Kyiv, particularly over territorial issues and security guarantees, remain unresolved.
A further round of negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian representatives is scheduled for 10–11 November in Abu Dhabi, with US mediation. Although the talks are expected to address ending hostilities and humanitarian concerns, the substantial differences between the two sides continue to cast doubt on the prospects for a lasting peace agreement.
The simultaneous crises involving Iran and Ukraine are also placing considerable demands on Washington’s diplomatic and military resources. For Russia, Ukraine and other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the direction of American policy remains an important factor in the wider geopolitical environment.
The South Caucasus: From Political Commitments to Economic Cooperation
The Trump administration’s engagement with the South Caucasus is particularly important for Azerbaijan. The agreements reached in Washington on 8 August 2025, with the participation of President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, opened new prospects for advancing the peace process and regional cooperation.
One of the key initiatives is TRIPP – the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity. Its implementation framework was announced in January 2026, followed by a strategic cooperation document between the United States and Armenia in May.
The initiative could improve transport connectivity between mainland Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan while strengthening the region’s position along the Trans-Caspian transport corridor. Its success, however, will depend on respect for sovereignty, the legitimate interests of all parties and clear legal arrangements.
For Azerbaijan, the priorities remain a comprehensive peace agreement with Armenia, the restoration of regional transport links and the expansion of transit opportunities. American investment could support these objectives, but lasting stability must ultimately be based on the sovereign rights and mutual commitments of regional states.
Central Asia: The Search for Strategic Partnerships
Central Asia is also gaining importance in Washington’s foreign policy calculations. Cooperation with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan covers energy, critical minerals, transport infrastructure and industrial development.
The C5+1 summit held in Washington in November 2025 provided an important platform for strengthening these relations. Throughout 2026, attention has continued to focus on investment, trade and Trans-Caspian transport connections.
Closer engagement with the United States offers Central Asian countries opportunities to attract investment, access advanced technologies and diversify their international economic partnerships. Nevertheless, Russia and China remain influential economic and political partners. The regional states therefore seek to maintain balanced foreign policies while protecting their sovereignty and national interests.
The real challenge is turning political declarations into practical results. Investment, functioning infrastructure and sustainable economic benefits will ultimately determine the value of these partnerships.
From Political Promises to Tangible Results
The Republicans’ defeat in the midterm elections does not necessarily mean a fundamental change in US foreign policy. However, Democratic control of Congress is likely to create additional obstacles concerning legislation, budget allocations, international commitments and overseas military operations.
For Azerbaijan and other CIS countries, relations with Washington should increasingly be based on concrete economic interests, mutually beneficial projects and reliable institutional arrangements rather than political declarations alone. Energy, transport, investment, defence industry and regional security remain particularly important areas of cooperation.
By November 2026, the gap between Trump’s campaign promises and international political realities has become increasingly evident. The confrontation with Iran, the unresolved Russia–Ukraine war and the complex dynamics of the South Caucasus and Central Asia demonstrate the limitations of political rhetoric.
Ultimately, Trump’s international legacy will be determined not by the scale of his promises, but by the results his administration achieves. For Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries, the prudent course is to safeguard national interests, diversify strategic partnerships and develop long-term cooperation mechanisms capable of withstanding political changes in Washington and other major capitals.
