By Mikhail Finkel – Dr. of International law, Israeli political scientist, an expert at international relations
For years the clerical regime of Iran has declared that it represents a genuine Islamic State that is an ally of every Muslim in the world. Today it is evident for all that this propaganda is patently false. Iran was caught by its hand by the Azerbaijanian border control. The ayatollahs have sent around 60 trucks full with fuel to the territory of the occupied Karabakh region, in order to aid the Armenian separatist forces.
Frankly speaking, this fact was only the tip of the iceberg. Iran has helped the Armenian side all the way both prior to the second Karabakh war, during the war, and continues to do so now. While on one hand declaring its full diplomatic and political support to the integrity of Azerbaijanian territory, it has, on the other hand, supported Armenia in every way possible.
Let us try to understand Iranian behavior. It seems not logical and counter productive, at the first glance. Why it does not support Azerbaijan, a predominantly Muslim, Shite county? Why it supports Christian Armenia?
In Iran today live from 25 to 35 million ethnic Azeris, whom the Iranian government considers to be a hostile fifth column, and whom it discriminates in various forms. Hence, weakening the neighboring Azerbaijan, by supporting its enemy, Armenia, is considered to be a top Iranian goal at the moment. Iranian regime is convinced that if Azerbaijan will enjoy peace after winning the war against Armenia, both at the battle field, and at the negotiating table, it will inevitably desire to “liberate” its Azeri brothers who now live in Iran. This notion is entirely not true and reflects paranoid pattern of thinking by the Iranian rulers, but this is the situation nonetheless.
The second reason why Iran has decided to threaten Azerbaijan in an open manner, is the growing strategic, business and military cooperation that exists between Azerbaijan and Israel.
Israeli weapons have played a significant role in the victory of Azerbaijan a year ago, and Iran has noticed this. Their rulers are suffering from another paranoid phobia, that Azerbaijan will allow Israeli army to take posissions on the Iranian border. This is another false, baseless accusation of Azerbaijan that has absolutely now ground. The President of Azerbaijan, Mr. Ilham Aliev has brilliantly responded to this foolish claim. He said: “Where are the proofs? Where are Israelis?” Of course there are no proofs and there is no evidence that these accusations are even partly true.
Iran has long ago become an absolutely irrational player, that does more harm to itself and to its people that its any potential enemy. The policies of Iranian government have lead to sanctions, international economic blockade, impoverishment within Iran, and a chronic economic and political crisis.
Azerbaijan is a strong modern superpower of the Caucasian region, with a mighty army, which is equipped with the best weapons in the world, and, which is even more important, with powerful and loyal allies, ready to fight alongside Azerbaijan.
I see no real danger of war between Azerbaijan and Iran, but it is important to remember who is who, and to be very careful with histerical Iranian neighbor, who bases its behavior on groundless hallucinations.
